Saturday, February 23, 2008

Stock pick: Berkshire Hathaway

There are a lot of uncertainty in the market right now. The economy's growth is slowed. It is difficult to find any attractive equity investments right now. So here is my stock pick of the day: Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A). The main reason? Trust the world's best investor, especially in a bear market.

  • BRK's investment portion make up only around 50% of market capitalization, making the stock less sensitive to general stock market volatility
  • it tends to outperform the market by a wider margin during a down market than a bull market (beginning from 1965, every time the S&P 500 went down during a year, BRK outperformed the index by an average of 24.8%)
  • it had $47 billion of cash in hand as of Sept 31st, 2007. The credit squeeze did not affect BRK at all.
  • Warren Buffett can deploy those $47 billion more effectively during a down market
So there you have it. BRK's absolute return in the short run may be uncertain, but I am confident it will outperform the S&P 500 by a wide margin in the coming year or two.

No comments: